Thursday, February 10, 2005
Finally- A Eulogy for the National Hockey Leauge
After months of "is it over yet?" hockey seems to have finally reached that endgame. In a move that can be called one of the most bone-headed along the lines of selling Babe Ruth and the creation of XFL the NHL is going to cancel their season. They are doing it as they battle over what was a $2.3 billion pie. This is akin to the two guys from the bible who were fighting over the baby and King Solomon offering to cut it in half, except in this case both sides decided they'd take half and walk away.
Sure, the NHL will return, but it will be a shell of itself. It will no longer be considered one of the big four, it will likely be out of the top 10 in popularity and it will be lucky to get their revenues up to half of what they are now. The great thing is that there is no certainty that they'll return at the beginning of next year. It could be mid-way through next year or even the year following before they come back.
Laying blame in the situation is useless, because it doesn't matter. Both sides are at fault. Both Gary Bettman and Bob Goodnow deserve to be fired as they have failed their respective side and in lemmingesque fashion led everyone over the cliff. In the end, it's the players who have the most to lose. The owners are around long term and will recoup a lot of their losses,especially since there's no doubt that it will be their idea of operating economics that's in place when they return. The players meanwhile will suffer greatly as even if they get a better deal than the last one the NHL put on the table, they'll come out millions upon millions behind where they might have been.
Think about it this way. Had they taken the lowest deal of a guaranteed 53% of the current revenues they would have assured themselves of more than $1.2 billion, or about $1.6 million per player.
Let's say they come back at the beginning of next year, expect revenues to be about half or $1.1 billion. At 53% the players would take home only $583 million or a little over $777-thousand a player. Even if they got the NHL to agree to 60% of revenues, that's still only $660 million or $880 thousand a player.
Honestly, that may be a best case scenario. There's a good chance the lockout continues through next season and if that happens expect a couple of teams to fold so there goes more revenue and also 50 to 75 jobs.
Morons. The lot of you. Regardless of who wins this is nuclear war, enjoy your fallout.
Sure, the NHL will return, but it will be a shell of itself. It will no longer be considered one of the big four, it will likely be out of the top 10 in popularity and it will be lucky to get their revenues up to half of what they are now. The great thing is that there is no certainty that they'll return at the beginning of next year. It could be mid-way through next year or even the year following before they come back.
Laying blame in the situation is useless, because it doesn't matter. Both sides are at fault. Both Gary Bettman and Bob Goodnow deserve to be fired as they have failed their respective side and in lemmingesque fashion led everyone over the cliff. In the end, it's the players who have the most to lose. The owners are around long term and will recoup a lot of their losses,especially since there's no doubt that it will be their idea of operating economics that's in place when they return. The players meanwhile will suffer greatly as even if they get a better deal than the last one the NHL put on the table, they'll come out millions upon millions behind where they might have been.
Think about it this way. Had they taken the lowest deal of a guaranteed 53% of the current revenues they would have assured themselves of more than $1.2 billion, or about $1.6 million per player.
Let's say they come back at the beginning of next year, expect revenues to be about half or $1.1 billion. At 53% the players would take home only $583 million or a little over $777-thousand a player. Even if they got the NHL to agree to 60% of revenues, that's still only $660 million or $880 thousand a player.
Honestly, that may be a best case scenario. There's a good chance the lockout continues through next season and if that happens expect a couple of teams to fold so there goes more revenue and also 50 to 75 jobs.
Morons. The lot of you. Regardless of who wins this is nuclear war, enjoy your fallout.
